Friday, November 15, 2013

Is the Bitcoin train ever turning back? $1000 by year end?

Could it be that the Bitcoin train is never ever turning back from here? Since BTC prices soared past the previous April high of $266, it's been surging up to a high of $440 and building up a resistance level, hitting this peak for the second time in 12 hours. On the 5 day chart, we can form a support at $370. I think this resistance and support levels are highly significant now, and my guess is that the BTC prices will be hovering between $370-$440 (MtGox price) for a good 4 days, at least until the 18th of November. If it breaks above this resistance, I feel like the train is never turning back. Will we ever see bitcoin prices at $250, or even $300, ever again?

Some of you may already know about the Homeland Security hearing on the 18th of November. Why is this important? Well, it really depends on the outcome. But judging from how the US is treating Bitcoins now, siezing MtGox bank accounts, silkroad etc., I'm skeptical about any good news coming out of this hearing. If it's bad news, we could easily see prices slide to $266, or even way below $200. Otherwise, if news is neutral or positive, we could see Bitcoin prices soar to $800, even $1000, by the end of the year. In the past month, some big names in Bitcoin and businesses have valued Bitcoin at $100k, even $1 million. Do you think that's possible? Tell me in the comments below.

Bitcoin's rising demand can also be attributred to more businesses offering BTC as a payment option, since Baidu first did so on 22st October 2013. Some notable brands include Shopify, Subway, with eBay considering it. While in China, you can buy real estate with BTC, and beer for BTC in Singapore!

On the other hand, there have also been a significant increase in the number of hackings. Several exchanges have fallen just this month alone, along with some wallet services such as inputs.io. Could the vulnerability of such services compromise the price of Bitcoins significantly?

How would you value a Bitcoin? Author Squeaky Wheel categorizes 3 ways in which we can measure the valuation of bitcoins: 
1) compare to gold (GLD), 
2) compare to a company providing similar service such as Western Union (WU) or Paypal (EBAY), or 
3) calculate values needed to support the transactional value.

I personally agree with the third method, because I believe that the value of Bitcoins are purely dependent on demand, which is in turn increased as more services are built to make it easier transact in cryptocurrncies. Of course, political and regulatory factors will also have a large effect on Bitcoin prices. So lets see what happens on the 18th of November 2013. 

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Sources

Vinkelvoss twins: Bitcoin should be worth over 100 times it's worth today http://www.cnbc.com/id/101190181
How High Could Bitcoin Value Soar? - Satoshi's Billion Dollar Pizza
EBay eyes use of Bitcoins in online commerce http://www.dw.de/ebay-eyes-use-of-bitcoins-in-online-commerce/a-17202747
As Bitcoin Plunges 25% On Government Scrutiny, The First BTC "Fair Value" Reco Has A Stunning Price Target http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-10/bitcoin-plunges-25-government-scrutiny-first-btc-fair-value-reco-has-stunning-price-
China, buying real estate with bitcoins http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-exchange-btc-china-experiences-time-price-high/
Beer for bitcoins singapore http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2fDYJFMXEg
$1.2M Heist Doesn’t Bode Well For Bitcoins as Secure Currency http://socialtimes.com/1-2m-heist-doesnt-bode-well-bitcoins-secure-currency_b137530

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